TF#1491. 2018-11-08
I was contemplating the idea of a twist and turn to get up Lonsdale with Skytrain and I wondered, well, how much can I shorten that twist and turn and at the same time stay below 6% grade? I plotted out a route and then created a profile. I assumed the line would stay 20m below the ocean floor and then planned it outwards from there trying to keep the stations as close to the ground as possible and the slope at 5.8% or less.
The
solution I came out with actually seemed to reasonably work and not be overly crazy in terms of cost ($2.53 billion in 2018 Canadian). There are many benefits for going with such an alignment:
- Connects to Commercial-Broadway Station which is like the epi-center of transit in Metro Vancouver.
- Commercial-Broadway now has a third platform which would be easy to tie the new line into
- Lonsdale Quay to Commercial-Broadway in 10min. Surrey Center or Coquitlam Center in 40min. (For both Driving takes 30min without traffic!).
- Delivers transit to the Lonsdale Corridor which has the highest density on the north shore.
- Makes connecting to the Seabus much faster. From 23rd to the Quay in 5min (versus now by bus, 15-20min).
- The "snake" curve alignment up Chesterfield and St. Georges allows for 3rd St to have a station aligned East-West. This would be brilliant for the future where a North Shore East-West Skytrain Line could connect directly to that 3rd St. Station. You could also get on a train at 23rd and continue straight to Park Royal without switching trains, or get on at Commercial Broadway and continue straight through to Phibbs and Dollarton. There are lots of options with this.
Comments
waves: Commercial/Victoria is 3rd in Bus Ridership in Vancouver!
Also saw in the Arbutus Thread that
Commercial/Victoria is the third busiest bus route in Vancouver (1st is 99, 2nd is 41). With connection to the North Shore, that Commericial Corridor has a very high ridership potential.
Daily Hive Quote:
"Top 10 busiest bus routes in Metro Vancouver in 2016 Based on annual boardings (operating cost per boarded passenger):
- 99 UBC/Broadway Station B-Line: 17,288,000 boardings ($0.60 per passenger)
- 41 Joyce Station/Crown/UBC: 9,019,000 boardings ($0.94 per passenger)
- 20 Victoria/Downtown: 8,371,000 boardings ($0.93 per passenger)
- 49 Metrotown Station/Dunbar/UBC: 7,506,000 boardings ($0.87 per passenger)
- 25 Brentwood Station/UBC: 7,409,000 boardings ($1.07 per passenger)
- 16 29th Avenue Station/Arbutus: 7,200,000 boardings ($1.19 per passenger)
- 9 Boundary/Broadway Station/Granville/Alma: 7,137,000 boardings ($1.12 per passenger)
- 135 Burrard Station/SFU: 6,513,000 boardings ($1.08 per passenger)
- 3 Marine Drive Station/Main/Downtown: 6,249,000 boardings ($1.01 per passenger)
- 106 Metrotown Station/New Westminster Station: 5,948,000 boardings ($0.94 per passenger)"
Migrant Coconut: And it outperforms San Fran!
Fun fact: all of the top ten outperform San Fran's entire cable car network.
Migrant Coconut: Extension further down Victoria?
Could a Phase 2 extension could get past the Expo and head south down Victoria? Seems like a waste to leave it at Broadway.
waves: It is possible but is it reasonable?
You could yes. To complete your alignment below from Victoria to Bridgehouse. So at $114 million per km above grade (11.4km), $270 million per km bridge (1.0km), $30 million per station (8), you result in $1.81 billion (2015 dollars) to complete that southern portion. If you only went to Marine Drive, it would be only $800 million (6km, 3-4 stations).
Most North Shore commuters don't really travel to the Fraserview area, so I guess I am just wondering what the point would be? With that in mind I am imagining that a number of potential projects might get priority namely: Hastings Skytrain Line, 41st/49th Skytrain Line, PoCo Extension, Canada Line Extension. Thoughts?
Migrant Cocnut: Maybe only to 41st?
Fair point - maybe to 41st/49th only. I was thinking that the Bridgeport switch will bottleneck sometime down the road, and that we need to give each of the branches its own line. I dunno about that order. The North Shore is practically screaming for the next SkyTrain (understandably so), and TransLink just might give it to them.
waves: List of regional priorities for capital transit projects
Oh the list wasn't complete or in any order. I have no idea what should come next. Right now as far as I can see things politically, in order:
- Langely Skytrain Extension + SNG-White Rock BRT.
- UBC Skytrain Extension
- SFU Gondola
- Something for the North Shore, idk what
- Canada Line Reno's and Extension (3 car trains, 50m long platforms, extension to Ladner)
If the line goes to 49th, that would be 4km and 2 stations, so $500 million extra. I'll look at specific phasing in a future post.
freddino: What about an Interurban alignment?
Would it be better to have the North Shore Line use the old Interurban ROW via Strathcona? It wouldn't have to be bored all the way, and there IS a somewhat deep section on the path that might screw things up. See the alignment in purple below. Somewhat longer and deeper line in Burrard Inlet and less development opportunity around the line, but, it is in exchange for a cheaper alignment through Vancouver that can use an abandoned port as the tunnel port thus reducing costs and giving a staging area for the project (the port was originally for BC cruise ships, but was abandoned, I forgot its name). Also, maybe less severe turns at Lonsdale Quay.
 |
| Interurban Alignment Option (in purple) |
Migrant Coconut: But you would miss the activeness of Commercial,
But then you're skipping the most active part of Commercial and most of Grandview-Woodland. The purple alignment has a couple of bars and restaurants, Fujiya, an elementary school and a really good gelato place, and that's about it - the rest is light industrial.
waves: Sure, but you would need to dive into a Bored Tunnel early there too.
fredinno, I have thought about that route too. The issue with it technically is that the inlet is deeper there. For the alignment in green, the bored tunnel must start at 1st avenue in order to get it deep enough (supposedly*) under the ocean floor. If we were to go with your route, you would have to do about the same (meaning the majority of that section has to be bored tunnel anyways and can't be at grade). Migrant Coconut also makes good arguments from a planning perspective.
Also, about the curve at the Quay on to Chesterfield, you might be able to have the line turn eastward sooner and follow that ridge before turning north-east straight up Chesterfield.
*I say supposedly because I am not a geologist and I haven't seen the stratigraphy along the route. This publication has some good information.
Jasoncw: Source for your cost?
Do you have a source for this breakdown? Your Lonsdale Line is wonderful.
freddino: The numbers look the same as Broadway!
Yeah, I have no idea how he came to that number for the Lonsdale Line when Broadway is $2.8B. The bored section of Broadway is close to the same length as just the Lonsdale Line Segment all the way up. (+ - 0.1km) [unless he plans on Cut-and Cover- which would be impractical due to high densities in the region] , includes a bored tunnel though East Vancouver, and a tunnel into Burrard Inlet, and is LESS than the Broadway Extension? I don't buy it.
Migrant Coconut: Property values are increasing the Broadway cost.
Two words: property values. Right now, Broadway is practically part of downtown, and even a Denny's or IHOP sells for over $20M; the estimate for the subway was $1.9B just last year.
The Canada Line cost about $2B ($2.3B in 2018 CAD) in part because it went through pre-density suburban and demiurban areas; even if Commercial is higher because of TBM costs, we're not going to see one of the LRT shills' moronic $3B+ figures.
waves: Estimate methodology is based off other North American transit projects.
The estimates do not include property acquisition costs, as MC correctly noted.
My secondary source for the cost numbers stem from Daryl's Blog post here. If he's reading this and has a newer post out I would be interested to see it. If you want to take a closer look at my calcs you can follow along in my crude spreadsheet here
I took Daryl's spreadsheet and expanded it out to include km of each grade type then used Excel Solver to minimize an RSS.
So, now the questions is, which lines in the table can we use? It's a good question. I had been using the "Only BC" numbers since my RSS results were the lowest, and most Vancouver related anyways. The table (shown above) however shows the range of $mill/km values you can get and the cost estimate associated with each assumption.
The Option 2 for the Langley Extension is based off of the map from Global BC here at about 55 sec. Technically there is about 9km of At-Grade described in the map, but I reduced that to 8km for an overpass at Hwy 15.
Also fredinno, Cut and Cover for 13th to 23rd for the Lonsdale Line is suggested on the profile.
fredinno:
I'd be iffy on Cut-and-cover on 13-17th; it's just too dense yet to start cutting up the road. Starting the cut on 17th avoids the remaining skyscrapers
waves:
Just because there are taller buildings beside the road doesn't mean that you can't have cut & cover in the road. Buildings don't go under roads typically and the ones on Lonsdale are not atypical. I stand by the ability to use cut and cover from 13th upwards.
Sheba:
Here are a couple other ideas for getting Skytrain to the North Shore (I'll leave the NS route / stops to people who know the area better than I do).
- A Willingdon Line from Metrotown, past BCIT and Brentwood to Kootenay Loop and then a bridge next to the Iron Workers Bridge to Phibbs Exchange and beyond
- A Hastings Line starting at Kootenay Loop to downtown Van, through Stanley Park and then a bridge next to Lions Gate Bridge and east to Lonsdale Quay and beyond
Migrant Coconut:
Can't find the study itself, but the findings are that a Downtown-Lonsdale crossing gets the most ridership.
GMD:
Ideally, these could connect as part of a single line (which would cross itself around Kootenay Loop - Hastings/Willingdon), which would of course, then extend from Metrotown, west along 41st and up to UBC... in my transit fantasy I refer to this as the 'Sea to Sky Line' (starting at the sea in UBC, and ending, via Gondola from Hastings/Duthie in the sky at SFU)
fredinno:
The issue is that there's not a whole lot in terms of dense development on the other side of 2nd Narrows, and it wouldn't replace the Seabus. Getting as close to Waterfront-Lonsdale as economically possible is the way to go here.
